A Tool to Predict Surgical Outcomes

Kaushal Yadav, Manjeet Singh, M S Griwan, T S Mishra, Naresh Kumar, Hitesh Kumar


Increased scrutiny and the need to institute a truly patient centered approach to surgical care has motivated the growing interest in measuring the quality of surgical care through comparative surgical audit. This study aimed to assess the validity of the POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity) and P-POSSUM (Portsmouth-POSSUM) score in predicting the risk of morbidity and mortality respectively in general surgical patients presenting with conditions of various operative severities at a tertiary care centre in Haryana, a northern state of India.
A prospective study was performed in 100 general surgical patients including an equal number of patients in each of the four groups of operative severity i.e. minor, moderate, major, major plus. The risks of mortality and morbidity were calculated by using the POSSUM equation for morbidity and the P-POSSUM equation for mortality in each patient. The predicted risks were compared with the observed risks of mortality and morbidity and statistically analysed.
The difference in p value of predicted risk of morbidity by POSSUM equation and observed morbidity; calculated by chi square test was 0.756 which was not statistically significant. The difference in p value of predicted mortality by P-POSSUM equation and observed mortality; calculated by chi square test was 0.472 which was also not statistically significant.
POSSUM and P-POSSUM appear to be good and valid indices for use in the risk prediction of morbidity and mortality in the north Indian population.

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